Verdict Cards
20 are listed here: every call that has been settled or is past its scheduled check, then the rest in order of their scheduled check date. Results stay public whether we were right or wrong.
This industry predicts every day and rarely goes back to check. Verdict cards do the opposite: every forward call we publish is a public record — the call, what it rests on, what would overturn it, and when it is scheduled to be checked. At that date it is checked against the rule written in advance; a card that has no result yet says what it is waiting for. Each record can be checked card by card before it is cited. Methodology
Badges: Not yet due; Awaiting result (past its scheduled check, no result yet); Hit; Miss; Partly right; Can't be determined. Verdicts on outside claims are marked Supported, Contested or Refuted.
Settled
- Claim verdict: Contested Outcome: MissWill OpenAI explain the German website incident and when it knew?Settled 2026-10-18
- MissKimi K3 will cut its price to DeepSeek's level by mid-October (we give it 10% odds)Settled 2026-10-15
- Can't be determinedAugust's AI incident wave was mostly backlog; counts track disclosure, not dangerSettled 2026-10-04
- Claim verdict: Contested Outcome: HitWill analysts press CoreWeave on NVIDIA's backstop? Gurley's first testSettled 2026-10-03
- Claim verdict: Contested Outcome: MissAnthropic will end Sonnet 5's promo on schedule and charge full priceSettled 2026-09-30
- Claim verdict: Contested Outcome: Can't be determinedGurley says OpenAI credits count as Azure revenue; Nadella says noSettled 2026-09-30
- MissClaude Sonnet 5's promo price will revert to the standard list price after August 31Settled 2026-09-30
Past the scheduled check, no result published yet
Not yet at the scheduled check
- Not yet dueThe US-China frontier AI gap will still measure between 4 and 14 months next timeDue 2026-10-31
- ContestedAnthropic's first profit: structural margin or compute-shortage rent?Due 2026-10-31
- Not yet dueTSMC price hikes stay in a 5% to 15% band; memory carries this cycle's pricingDue 2026-10-31
- Not yet dueWhether labs pull compute back from outside customers shows in prices and quotasDue 2026-10-31
- ContestedWill Google sign a verifiable long-term TPU deal with an outside customer?Due 2026-10-31
- ContestedWill any frontier lab publish its flagship's absolute layer count?Due 2026-11-01
- Not yet dueThe Kimi K3 license guards Moonshot's own API price floor, not rent from cloudsDue 2026-11-05
- ContestedTPU up to 50% better per dollar: will an independent rerun confirm it?Due 2026-11-07
- Not yet due“Backstop deals sink stocks” is wrong: the guarantor falls, the guaranteed side risesDue 2026-12-31
- Not yet due“LLMs will become swappable commodities”: our call—only below the top tier, so farDue 2027-07-25
- Not yet dueAI labs aren't just selling models: they are becoming do-it-all integrated makersDue 2027-07-27
- Not yet due“Open weights” no longer means one thing: three business models share the labelDue 2027-07-28
Earlier verdict cards
Cards no longer in the latest list above, newest first.
- OpenAI's Astra release names one monitor; the system card vouches with another
- Vetted-list cyber models matter only until open-weight models catch up
- AMD's 2027 MI500 optics and the co-packaged optics delay are two different things
- By mid-2027, fewer than 2 firms will publicly confirm fully dropping copilot-style tools
- Retention of AI subscriptions over $250 a month will drop below the warning line
- The length of task an AI can finish on its own will pass 8 hours
- The cost of insuring NVIDIA's debt against default will stay high through year-end
- Borrowing to build AI data centers will spread, but the only case so far is Oracle
- Compute glut or not: unresolved for now, with a window set to check
- Training stays on GPUs; cloud giants move their own inference to in-house chips