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In the next enterprise adoption report, Anthropic's share will drop 5 points or more — resolves 2026-09-30
In the next enterprise adoption report, Anthropic's share will drop 5 points or more — resolves 2026-09-30
Scheduled check 2026-09-30 has passed; no result has been published yet.
Waiting on: The source named in advance for checking this call, Menlo Ventures' enterprise LLM adoption report, had not published a new edition by 2026-09-30, so there is no result yet. As soon as a new edition appears, the call is settled under the original rule; the scheduled date is not moved, and how late the result arrives will be recorded.
Background
The debate: venture firm Menlo Ventures surveys every six months which big AI models companies actually use, one of the few public, checkable market-share numbers.
Why it matters: the direction of market share is the most direct evidence in the argument over whether big AI models will become cheap, swappable commodities.
Who is on each side: our previous call bet that share would become more concentrated, and this one is the counter-indicator we set up specifically to test ourselves.
The call
Our call: this is a deliberately fixed counter-indicator. If Anthropic's enterprise share falls from 40% to 35% or lower, a drop of 5 percentage points or more, the reading that share keeps concentrating should be retired.
We put the odds of this happening at only 40%; we wrote it down to give ourselves a chance to be proven wrong, not because we expect it to happen.
Sources behind the call
BG2 Pod / Altimeter (guest host), interview with Ali Ghodsi (Databricks CEO) and Arvind Jain (Glean CEO)
“the the LLMs is a commodity as Arvind said. You…”
The receipt
Read the Anthropic and top-three share figures in the latest edition of Menlo Ventures' official enterprise AI adoption report, expected around 2026-09.
What would overturn it
A share still above 35% means the concentration trend continues; exactly 35% counts as a hit, per the call's own wording (a drop of at least 5 percentage points, that is, 35% or lower).
Correction to the settlement rule
Corrected on 2026-10-10: the miss condition originally read "still at or above 35%", which overlapped with "35% or lower is a hit" at exactly 35%. Following the call's own wording — a drop of 5 points or more, i.e. 35% or lower — exactly 35% counts as a hit and only above 35% is a miss; on 2026-10-13 the "what would overturn it" line was rewritten to the same boundary. Both corrections were made before Menlo had published a new edition, so no result had been seen. The original wording stays in our ledger and in the public mirror's version history.